About Me
Earl Lokin is a mathematics and statistics professor, known mainly for his work on the Basics of probability. As a professor, one of his passions is to find odds and statistics in everything leading to why he has in-depth knowledge of the matter. Professor Earl Lokin passion for odds has made him able to find the odds of winning in some casino games.
Just like the way Gene Chandler comes to mind when the history of who sang Duke of Earl, Earl Lokin comes to mind when the basics of probability is the subject matter. Variability and uncertainty is one thing common to Life. Variability and change is also one of the differences between mathematics and statistics, and Professor Earl Lokin has in-depth knowledge in it.
Introduction to Basics of Probability
Probability is the likelihood or chance that a particular event will happen. It can be explained in percentage form ranging between 0-100% or as proportion range between 0-1. When talking about the probability, 0 indicates there is no chance of that event will occur. On the other hand, the basics of probability also say when the probability is 1; it means that an event is sure to happen.
It can be in the context of unconditional and conditional basics of probability. Unconditional probability is a concept where if we select a sample at random. On using the simple random sampling process, each sample will have the same probability of being selected, and its chance of occurring would be 1/N, where N=the population size.
Conditional probability is another concept which measures the likelihood of an event occurring as long as another has (by presumption, assumption, evidence, or assertion) occurred. If A is the event of interest, and B is the assumed event, then the conditional probability is written as P (A|B) and sometimes as PB (A).
Understanding and Calculating the Odds: Game Theory
The basics of probability and a proper understanding of odds and gambling can be of help in determining whether or not a wager is worth pursuing. There are three distinct types of odds: decimal, factorial, and American. Different online casinos and bookmakers use different kinds of odds format to present the probability of winning. One type of odd is interchangeable with another. So long the implied probability is known, an individual can make decisions regarding whether or not to place a bet.
How to Convert Odds to Implied Probability?
Although to convert odds, it requires seemingly complicated calculations. Once you fully grasp how to convert numbers into implied probabilities and the three types of odds, the probability would be easier to understand. Let’s take a closer look into it:
- Fractional odds can be sometimes called traditional odds, or British odds. They can be written as a fraction such as 6/1 or as a ratio like 6:1.
- Decimal odds represent that you win for every $1 wagered. Take, for example, if the odd is 3.00 that a particular horse will win, the payout would be $300 if you wagered $100.
- Lastly, the American odds, also known as Moneyline odds which follows a minus (-) or plus (+) sign. Assign the plus sign to the lower probability that has, the higher payout.
There are tools you can use to convert between the different types of odds. But because we’re talking about probability, we encourage that you learn how to do it with a pen and paper, with the conversion formula table below:
| Conversion formulas | ||
| X | To | Calculation Required |
| Fractional | Decimal | Step 1: Divide or solve the fraction
Step 2: Add 1 |
| Fractional | American | Step 1: Solve or divide the faction
Step 2: If your answer is greater than 1, multiply your answer by 100, but if less than 1, divide it by 100 |
| Decimal | Fractional | Step 1: Deduct 1
Step 2: Convert your answer to a fraction |
| Decimal | American | Step 1: If decimal odd is greater than 2, then multiply by 100, but if less than 2, then divide by 100 |
| American | Decimal | Step 1: If American Odd is greater than 0, (American Odd/100)+1, but if less than 0, (100/American Odd)+1 |
| American | Fractional | Step 1: If American odd is greater than 0 then divide (American Odd/100) but if less than 0, then (100/American Odd) |
Below is the general rule of converting any odds into an implied probability:
The implied probability of an outcome = Stake/Total Payout
Stake = Amount wagered
Odds to Win in Casino Games
Although some people think skill is a factor that determines wins in several casino games. It is true when you’re playing games where your decision affects the outcome of the game, e.g. card games. Other casino games with the best odds to win when you’re playing using the basics of probability are roulette games, craps and blackjack games.
If you have in-depth knowledge about the basics of probability, you can win the most in poker, because you are not playing against the house but other players. These games are available for play at big online casinos all from the comfort of your smartphone. You can also use their casino bonus, for example, welcome no deposit bonus to double your money to win real money. Here is some information about the likelihood of winning in some casino games using the basics of probability and the casino bonus.
Blackjack
Your chance of winning in blackjack games are between the ranges of 44-48%, although the house has an edge of 1% over its players. The more you know about blackjack basic playing strategy and the basics of probability, the more likely your odds of winning will be.
Craps
Craps is a 50/50% chance of winning, but the one caveat about Craps is to know the different ways you can place a bet. There are so many bets you can place on a Craps table. But knowing the right one to use at the right time and how to apply the probability, can reduce the house edge against you to a range of 0-16.67%.
Roulette
Your chance of winning in roulette games are 1 in 36 up to approximately 45-47%. The odds on a roulette table are about the same if you stick to betting on odds/evens or red/black. Another consideration worth noting is whether or not the roulette wheel has a 00. A roulette wheel that has just 0 gives the dealer a 2.7% house edge. But a roulette wheel that has a 0 and 00 increases the house edge to 5.26%.
Poker
The odd of winning poker varied depending on the skill level and the game. In online poker, the house is not involved beyond supplying a dealer. A more experienced player can run through their possible hands within seconds, giving them a much better odds of winning compared to a novice. If you are looking at it as mathematical odds, then you have a 1 in 5 chance of winning if there are five players.